Track record
Every turn call the system has made since April 1998, scored against what the market actually did next. Updated nightly.
Calls are written the day they fire, before the outcome is known, and labelled later. Nothing on this page is re-selected after the fact.
of the 25 major alerts it has raised were followed by a market turn in the expected direction.
Median 8 sessions of warning before the turn. Roughly 0.07 alerts a year did not resolve into one.
of the 100 major market turns in that period were called at all. It stays silent through most of them.
Being right when it speaks and speaking often are different things. This is the second one, and it is the weaker of the two.
Every call, by tier
A hit is a turn in the called direction inside the tier's credit window. Calls whose window has not closed yet are excluded — an unfinished call is not evidence either way.
| Tier | Calls | Hits | Hit rate | Median lead | Unresolved / yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major · alert | 25 | 23 | 92.0% | 8 | 0.07 |
| Major · watch | 89 | 46 | 51.7% | 10 | 1.53 |
| Major — all | 114 | 69 | 60.5% | 10 | 1.6 |
| Tactical · watch | 86 | 64 | 74.4% | 0 | 0.78 |
| Tactical — all | 86 | 64 | 74.4% | 0 | 0.78 |
Which turns get caught
Bigger turns are caught more often, but even the largest are missed more often than not. Sized by the move that followed the turn.
| Size of the move after the turn | Turns | Called | Caught |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–15% | 37 | 10 | 27.0% |
| 15–25% | 33 | 12 | 36.4% |
| 25%+ | 30 | 10 | 33.3% |
Most recent calls
| Date | Call | Outcome | Nifty, 63 sessions on |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | +4.7% |
| 23 Mar 2026 | tactical bottom watch | turned 30 Mar 2026 | +6.4% |
| 04 Mar 2026 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | -5.1% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | tactical bottom watch | turned 01 Feb 2026 | -3.5% |
| 26 Sep 2025 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | +5.2% |
| 15 May 2025 | major bottom watch | no turn in window | -2.3% |
| 08 May 2025 | major bottom watch | no turn in window | +1.5% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | major bottom watch | no turn in window | +2.1% |
| 07 Apr 2025 | major bottom watch | no turn in window | +15.0% |
| 18 Mar 2025 | major bottom watch | turned 04 Mar 2025 | +10.0% |
| 28 Feb 2025 | major bottom watch | turned 04 Mar 2025 | +11.9% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | +7.0% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | major bottom watch | turned 04 Mar 2025 | +6.7% |
| 06 Feb 2025 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | +6.2% |
| 27 Jan 2025 | major bottom watch | turned 04 Mar 2025 | +6.6% |
| 30 Dec 2024 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | -0.5% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | tactical bottom watch | no turn in window | -3.2% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | major bottom watch | no turn in window | -4.1% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | tactical bottom watch | turned 21 Nov 2024 | -2.1% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | major top watch | no turn in window | -7.1% |
How this is measured
Turns are located by a zigzag on NIFTY 50 closes — a major turn is one followed by a move of 10% or more. That labelling is mechanical and does not know what the radar said.
The probabilities behind each call are calibrated walk-forward: a call made in 2012 was scored using only what was known by 2012. Turn labels are used to grade calls afterwards, never as an input to making them.
Recall above counts every major turn in the period. A shorter list of famous turns would flatter it, and that is exactly why this page does not use one.
Covering Apr 1998 to May 2026 (28.1 years). Last updated 03 Aug 2026.
These are historical results for one index over one period. Nothing here predicts what will happen next, and a hit rate is not a return — none of these figures describe money made or lost.
QuantMood is for information and education. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.